The Insider - December 22, 2008

Also, another careful reader pointed out that indeed Auditor General Jack Wagner won a landslide re-election but it was against Republican Chet Beiler, not Tom Ellis, the losing Republican for state treasurer. We regret both errors.

Republican Party committee members from the 29th Senatorial district were charged with selecting a candidate to be the GOP nominee when regular voters go to a special election March 3 to choose the successor to longtime senator, James Rhoades who died from a car accident in late October. The winner will serve until 2012 because voters, in a tribute to Rhoades, re-elected him to a new four-year term after his untimely death.

Attorney Chris Hobbs, Rhoades' son-in-law led on the first ballot, 27-26, of the Republican conference committee. But a key role was played conservative attorney Gretchen Sterns who scored four votes on that same ballot. (Three second-tier candidates got zero first-ballot votes and were eliminated: Ed Balkiewicz, 41, a North Schuylkill school board director, Willard Dellicker, 63, of New Tripoli, and Joseph Gattone Jr., of Hamburg.)

Rhoades' widow, Mary Edith wrote a letter to committee people stating that when Rhoades pondered retirement before deciding to run again in 2008, he wanted Hobbs to succeed him. Champ Holman, Rhoades' close friend and long-time aide, said he was not running because Sen. Rhoades wanted Chris Hobbs to succeed him.

But this contest had particular appeal to Argall. A special election is one of the few times that a House member can make the leap to the upper chamber without having to forfeit the seat he now holds. And even if he loses on March 3, he still is a state representative, serving his 13th term.

The Hobbs/Rhoades family connection did not intimidate Argall. The 50-year-old lawmaker is well-known for his cheerfulness, industry and intelligence. He often gets teased about being a Boy Scout (he was an Eagle Scout and now is an adult troop leader) but he has kept up that boyish but smart persona for 24 years and it has paid off for him, even now that he has gray hair.

Sterns was also a strong candidate, but was considered by the still-fairly-moderate GOP committee members to be too conservative for this district, which consists of all of Schuylkill County, and parts of Berks, Monroe, Northampton, Lehigh and Carbon counties.

And like the old EF Hutton commercials, committee people, asked about Argall, said he had positioned himself for this moment: "He's Eahhhhhned it."

On Thursday, an anonymous letter began to circulate, attacking Argall as one of the "authors" of the 2005 pay raise, since he was a member of the Conference Committee that produced it late one night. The mailer also pummeled him on votes for taxes, pension hikes and other matters that generally don't sit well with GOP committee members and the public.

So Argall was still in the lead, but Hobbs was still competitive enough to lead on the first ballot 27-26, with 29 votes needed for nomination and four votes coming in for Sterns, mostly from Lehigh and Monroe counties. On the second ballot, apparently all of Sterns votes, guided by their state lawmakers who are Argall allies, went to the veteran Schuylkill County lawmaker.

Argall told the Capitolwire news service: "24 years in the state House helped me make the friends I needed and had today, it was just very, very helpful, in terms of my relationship not just with delegates, but the other House members in the district and region, and their help was very valuable."

Argall told Capitolwire that "it may take me some time to sort things out as to what happened, but I believe I will be the nominee of a united party. I spoke to Gretchen, I spoke to Chris, and we have all been friends for years. I don't believe it will be difficult for us to unify and win on March 3rd and work together to help the 29th District."

Rhoades was elected in 1981, defeating a one-term-Democrat who had ended the 10-year tenure of Fred Hobbs, the father of Chris Hobbs.

At a candidates' debate on Wednesday night, the Pottsville Republican reported that Argall touted his experience, Hobbs said he had the "Rhoades machine" working for him, and Sterns said too many Republicans had abandoned conservative principles for Harrisburg deal-making.

Sterns said small business is the real driver of the economy but Argall and Hobbs said government can play a role.

The special election is March 3, with the Democrats nominating six-term Schuylkill County Clerk of Courts Steve Lukach.

Which is why this election may get even more interesting. Lukach is a popular, well-liked county row officer and when Democrats or Republicans from Schuylkill County are asked about Lukach, the most common comparison is to Congressman Tim Holden, the popular congressman who won a long-time Republican district in 2002 over Republican George Gekas who had earlier been favored.

Given the Democratic trend of this district in the fall elections, and Lukach's popularity, this could be a very competitive special election.

Now, unions want to change that process so that if a majority of employees sign cards staying they elect to unionize, the union is installed. It skips the secret ballot election step and thus, an opportunity for management to make its case against unionization, after a majority of workers have signed. Also, the signed cards are evidence of who did and did not vote for a union so the secrecy of the ballot is compromised for workers.

Companies and conservatives maintain card check – the generic name for the Employee Free Choice Act – will give an unfair advantage to union organizers who will apply pressure directly or use peer pressure to get wavering or non-signing employees to vote to unionize.

In an economic climate where union membership is generally dwindling and unions are trying to hold the fort on contracts that give its members better health care and higher-than-average wages when companies are cash-strapped, card check has become the new rallying cry of the business community.

Specter, who will turn 80 in 2010 when he is next up for re-election, has stated emphatically he will seek an unprecedented sixth term in the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania two years from now. He has vowed to raise upwards of $30 million just for a potential primary fight.

In 2004, Specter faced his greatest electoral challenge ever in the Republican primary when conservative Pat Toomey, a former congressman from the Lehigh Valley, came within 14,000 votes of upsetting Specter in the spring primary. It was Specter's closest call ever.

Toomey, now the national president of the conservative Club for Growth, has hinted he may challenge Specter again next year and has theorized his chances, if anything, have improved because many moderate specter-loving Republicans, especially in the Philadelphia suburbs, left the party earlier this year to vote for Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

Also in 2004, Specter had significant backing from President George W. Bush and conservative U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, who are both off the political radar screen this time around.

Toomey said it is unlikely this year's party-switchers will return to the GOP fold simply to help Specter.

After his near-death primary with Toomey, Specter in 2004 won an easy general election against Democrat Joe Hoeffel, now a Montgomery County commissioner. So it's generally held that Specter's greater challenge is from the right (Toomey or a Toomey-like Republican) rather than the left (a Democratic challenger). In past general elections, many Democrats and many unions have supported Specter.

Capitolwire, the Harrisburg-based Internet news service, reported this week that one Specter donor and GOP power broker said this on an anonymous basis:

"If Sen. Specter votes with business on card check, he may not get a real primary opponent at all. And if he does, big business will be with Arlen, right down the line, $30 million worth, just as he planned. Without the right vote on card check, that Arlen plan for $30 million is in a little trouble. That is how big the issue is shaping up to be."

Capitolwire columnist Pete DeCoursey raised this question: Who can Specter best afford to enrage? The unions or the companies? Does he want to make his primary tougher or his general election?

For the moment, Specter is staying neutral. He told DeCoursey: "…the topography changes so much, it is a good idea to wait and see what develops. I am keeping an open mind."

Since his primary challenge is harder, some speculate that Specter may decide to antagonize the unions, since he would still have nearly two years to woo them back in his fold.

But some union leaders are not inclined to give Specter such slack. "For us, this is the single most important piece of legislation in 50 years," Andy Gaffney, of the AFL-CIO Southeastern Pennsylvania labor federation told Capitolwire. "Any senator that votes against the Employee Free Choice Act (card check) is not going to have the support of organized labor."

Gaffney said that this spring the labor movement will mount one of its greatest grassroots campaigns to get card check through a Congress, greater controlled by Democrats than at any time in recent history. But some Democrats who hail from non-union states, such as the South, or conservative regions of union-friendly states, may not be able to vote for card check so some Republican support will likely be needed.

Some Democrats interested in Specter's Senate seat, such as MSNBC commentator Chris Matthews, may get in the race, hedging their bets that Toomey or another conservative Republican will upset Specter in the primary this time. Their thinking is that a moderate Democrat will have a better than 50-50 chance of prevailing against any Rick Santorum clone in a general election.

So back to the giant trash compactor: Does Sen. Specter prefer to squeezed in the primary or the general election?

Gov. Ed Rendell says this year's budget alone will probably bring in $1.6 billion less than expected. House and Senate Appropriations Committee staffers from both parties say $2-billion-plus is more like it.

House Appropriations Chairman Dwight Evans, D-Philadelphia, responded to Scarnati's plan by asking "How long has he been in leadership?"

Two years is the answer. Just to remind you, nine years ago, Scarnati lost a primary bid to former Sen. William Slocum. Then the feds indicted Slocum for illegal sludge-dumping while he was a borough manager and Scarnati ran as a third-party candidate against Slocum as well as a Democrat and won in a three-way general election scrap.

Then, two years ago, Senate President Pro Tem Robert Jubelirer, R-Blair, lost his primary re-election bid and the Senate had to cast about for a successor to the man who had run that caucus for almost 26 years.

Scarnati defeated Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, by a single vote for that post, and then earned the respect of his colleagues by his handling of the Senate elections in 2008, keeping all of the seats they previously held and adding a surprising one in Beaver County that Democrats had controlled for decades.

Who funded most of that effort? Joe Scarnati, with almost $2 million he raised over the past two years and largely spent in a two-month election spree leading up to Nov. 4. And who pitched in the money to save Piccola's seat against a strong late challenge? Scarnati did it.

Then Scarnati gave Piccola a chairmanship Piccola will enjoy: the Education Committee, where Piccola, a trenchant critic of the public education establishment, will have lots to review and criticize and highlight. That kind of ability to put past battles behind and to mend fences has strengthened Scarnati in the caucus. And it didn't hurt when USA Today pointed that the Pennsylvania Senate is the only legislative chamber in the Northeast Corridor north of Virginia that is controlled by the GOP.

Then, this fall, Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll died and Scarnati succeeded to that post. So internally and externally, Scarnati starts off the year in as strong a position as he could ever hope to be.

One thing is for sure: the state's business and political class missed one of the main joys of that weekend in Manhattan, a chance to get a preview of the coming political attractions. Matthews' no-show, especially when his brother told him of the importance of being there, is being viewed as a sign that he will remain a broadcaster and stay off the playing field.

2. Other Democratic Specter challengers playing it quiet. While Matthews did not appear, several other possible Democratic challengers were there, but none would confirm they would run. Auditor General Jack Wagner would only say that he would likely, but not certainly run for senator or governor in 2010, and would decide later. U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, D-Montgomery, isn't ruling it out, but is hardly chasing it with the ardor or all-but-announced gubernatorial candidates Dan Onorato or Don Cunningham, who respectively are the executives of Allegheny and Lehigh counties.

The candidate pursuing the Democratic Senate nomination most fervently at this point is state Rep. Josh Shapiro, D-Montgomery, but he isn't talking about it publicly either and he could run for lieutenant governor or some other office. Oddly, the general feeling is that Matthews won't get a clear field in the primary, if he runs, but the field might clear if he does not.

And the secret wish among the Democrats considering a Senate run is that Specter will either not run or get beaten by a right-wing candidate in his own party primary and then the Democratic nominee can run center-left of the wing-nut and win.

3. Radio silence on Supreme Court. With six appellate court seats to be filled in 2009, Pennsylvania Society should have been a hotbed of rumors about who will run. Instead, the power-brokers of Pennsylvania politics, when asked even about the Supreme Court this past weekend, changed the subject, mostly out of lack of interest. Only a few even bother to mention the candidates: state judges Joan Orie Melvin, Jackie Shogan, Cheryl Allen and Philadelphia Judge Paul Panepinto on the GOP side, and state judges Jack Panella and Christine Donahue on the Democratic side. With only weeks to go before both parties endorse, that just shows you how much political oxygen the 2010 races are drawing away from 2009.

4. GOP Governor hopefuls circulate. The biggest draws at the receptions and parties were the candidates for governor: Attorney General Tom Corbett and U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan and late-announcing surprise addition to the field, U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, R-Chester. As with the other offices, much attention was given and much notice made to the non-appearance of former Congressman Pat Toomey, who is pondering a run for Senate or governor in 2010. As with most no-shows, Toomey's refusal to appear was read as lack of interest in running. This is especially true since unlike most who want to run against the establishment, the business titans who attend Pennsylvania Society include a fair share who would back Toomey even though a majority will likely favor Specter (See accompanying story).

But while Corbett is ranked as the front-runner, Gerlach's entry into the race means 2009 is essentially an eastern power broker primary for Gerlach to become the eastern candidate against former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Corbett is definitely going to run, and the question is, by the end of this coming year, which of Gerlach or Meehan will emerge as his eastern rival going into the 2010 Republican State Committee endorsement process and primary?

Meehan has the support, at least for now, of much of the old guard party chairmen in the east, while Gerlach is a Lawrence County native who moved east and then won elections for successively state House, state Senate and Congress. A guy with western Pennsylvania roots and a proven electoral record in eastern Pennsylvania is a combination that can not to be lightly dismissed. But Meehan starts with an edge.

And don't forget, while Gerlach's staff likes to remind people that he won a tough Congressional district four times in a row, it is also true that Corbett won it twice, while running for attorney general.

So watch this race as Meehan and Gerlach duel for the east and Corbett tries to cement his alliances in the rest of the state and pick off key eastern fund-raisers and power brokers. Of course, none of these are "official" candidates, but all spent so much time talking frankly to prospective supporters that all talked more like candidates at Pennsylvania Society than they have or will in public for months.

5. Democratic governor candidates. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham held fancy parties at the Waldorf-Astoria. Millionaires Tom Wolf of York and Tom Knox of Philadelphia were omnipresent, as was Auditor General Jack Wagner, who also held a well-attended reception. Wagner is still not saying whether he will run for governor or Senate in 2010. Onorato and Cunningham are, all but announced candidates. Knox and Wolf are more circumspect and Wagner just smiles and waits.

Onorato says he will exceed the $3.5 million he was expected to have in his campaign kitty by the end of the year, Cunningham will be far behind in dollars but is working hard to position himself as the socially-liberal, but fiscally-sound alternative to Onorato, and the rest are lining up supporters.

6. Specter's suspect joke telling. By telling a Polish joke at a Republican reception the Rainbow Room in New York, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., got into the pages of the New York tabloids, when some of those who were listening were offended. (Specter: "Did you hear the one about the Polish person?" "I'm Polish." "Oh, let me tell it slowwwwly.")

According to those who attended a second speech he gave at the Saturday morning seminar of the Pennsylvania Manufacturer's Association that was only one of the off-color jokes he told to large crowds during the weekend. During that meeting, he told the crowd that Dan Quayle's worst mistake wasn't misspelling potato by adding an "e" to the end, it was thinking "harass" was two words. One of his female audience members said she was offended, and some of Specter's supporters have asked him to shelve the comedy, at least until after the 2010 election. But to be honest, Specter is 78, and if he loses next time, it will take something more than a risqué or politically incorrect joke.